Viernes 12 de septiembre del 2025

The long-awaited review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is expected to formally kick off shortly, the Chamber has learned. The agreement’s text calls for the first “joint review” of the agreement’s operation to be concluded by July 1, 2026. The Trump administration’s ongoing negotiations with Canada and Mexico over tariffs are formally separate from this review, but officials indicate they see overlap between the two tracks.

The text of the agreement requires USTR to issue a Federal Register notice seeking stakeholder input at least 270 days before the mid-2026 deadline, and that deadline falls in the first week of October. The notice has been delayed several times but is expected shortly.

Warming Relations? The mood between Washington and the two neighboring capitals has improved and is arguably more constructive than at any point this year. One boost was President Sheinbaum’s commitment to President Trump to address a list of commercial challenges, including failures to comply with the agreement’s terms that the Chamber has highlighted repeatedly. Negotiations with Canada warmed notably after Prime Minister Carney announced his government would drop retaliatory tariffs.

Of note, Canada and Mexico benefit from much better access to the U.S. market than other countries: USMCA-compliant goods enter the U.S. duty free, and companies have managed to bring about 90% of all imported goods into this privileged category (assembled autos, steel, aluminum, and copper being major exceptions).

Key Issues in the Review

• Compliance: As the Chamber has underscored for several years, all three countries are failing to comply fully with their USMCA obligations. This is particularly true in the case of Mexico.
• China: U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has long mused about how to devise tougher rules of origin to deny the Chinese content in goods assembled in third countries the preferential access to the U.S. market granted by trade agreements such as the USMCA. These views have evolved to include the notion that the U.S. will impose tariffs on Chinese inputs in Mexican- or Canadian-assembled goods — or goods produced in Mexico or Canada by Chinese companies. The U.S. is also pressing its partners to develop more sophisticated mechanisms to screen inbound investment from China. Both Canada and Mexico may be pressured to hike tariffs on Chinese goods generally (as Canada has done with EVs and steel and as Mexico announced it will do for a variety of goods this week).
• Autos: This sector represents more than one-fifth of North American trade, but the 25% Section 232 auto tariffs have negatively impacted domestic auto producers. The U.S. auto sector is also burdened by tariff-inflated steel and aluminum prices. Separately, Canada and Mexico will likely face U.S. demands for even higher U.S. content requirements in North American-produced vehicles than agreed in 2019.
• Rapid Response Mechanism for Labor: Former USTR Robert Lighthizer won support for USMCA from unions and congressional Democrats by including this tool for targeting and potentially tariffing products from specific facilities in Mexico where unionization is allegedly blocked. The mechanism’s frequent use has stoked sovereignty concerns in Mexico and demands for reciprocal access in the U.S.

Chamber Preparations: The Chamber has been working with members to prepare for its engagement in the review process. Chamber members are keen to preserve the benefits of North American free trade, which supports 13 million American jobs, and many are also interested in leveraging the review to address areas where Canada or Mexico are not complying with their USMCA obligations.

• Gathering Member Input: The Chamber has begun collecting companies’ USMCA review priorities to inform its submission to USTR.
• Executive Branch Outreach: The Chamber’s Americas team recently met with senior officials from USTR, the NSC, and State to share Chamber priorities and will do so again in the wake of FRN release.
• Congressional Outreach: The Chamber has begun meetings with staff for the House Ways and Means and Senate Finance Committees, with touch points with other key members of Congress to follow.
• Telling the Story: The Chamber has begun efforts to update advocacy materials and is starting engagement with state and local chambers.